D
Daisy
— The Patient One —
On the first of every month, $1,000 automatically buys Vanguard's S&P 500 fund. She does not check the news. She does not check her balance.
An Almanac Exhibit
❦
Volume I, No. 1
Three Investors,
Half a Century
From 1976 to 2025, three people each set aside twelve thousand dollars a year for the S&P 500. They differed only in when they pressed Buy.
I.
The Players
L
Lucy
— The Charmed One —
Once a year, $12,000 in a single shot, always landing on the year's lowest closing price. An impossible feat — and yet she pulls it off, every year, for fifty.
B
Ben
— The Cursed One —
Once a year, $12,000 in a single shot, always landing on the year's highest closing price. Whatever Lucy is, Ben is the mirror. Buy at the top. Every time.
II.
The Stage
— Before You Watch · Place Your Bet —
By how much do you think Lucy's perfect-bottom timing
beats Daisy's mindless monthly auto-invest, after 50 years?
beats Daisy's mindless monthly auto-invest, after 50 years?
Both contributed exactly $600,000. Pick a gut number — there's no penalty for being wrong.
Portfolio Value by Year
|
1976 — 2025
|
$12,000 contributed annually
As of year
1976
S&P 500: —
| Investor | Contributed | Portfolio | Multiple | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daisy | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Lucy | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Ben | $0 | $0 | — | — |
Window
— The Verdict —
…
…
III.
The Reckoning
$600,000 Each contributed the same. Each waited fifty years. Behold the spread.
| Investor | Strategy | Ending Value | Multiple | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy | Bottom-tick of every year | — | — | — |
| Daisy | Monthly auto-invest, ignore news | — | — | — |
| Ben | Top-tick of every year | — | — | — |